February 2, 2025Comment(364)

Balancing New and Established Growth Drivers

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China is currently undergoing a crucial phase of economic transformation and upgrading, where the balance between new and old driving forces is of paramount importance for achieving both quality improvement and reasonable quantifiable growth. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that there is a need to effectively integrate the nurturing of new driving forces with the upgrading of old ones, pointing towards a tailored development of new productive forces according to local conditions. This approach reflects an increasingly profound understanding by the Party regarding the laws of economic work, contributing positively towards stabilizing the economy, optimizing structural development, and promoting sustained economic progress.

Understanding the essence of new and old driving forces is the first critical step in facilitating this transformation. In the era of high-quality development, nurturing new forces entails leveraging innovation as a driving factor, while the focus of upgrading older forces centers around the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries through innovative means. New driving forces are defined as advanced productive forces and associated production relations that abandon traditional development patterns. In stark contrast to their old counterparts, the essence of new driving forces lies in their innovation-driven nature. For an extended period, China's economic progression relied heavily on an increase in capital and labor inputs, which came at a significant environmental and resource cost. However, as the economic environment evolves, the imbalance between supply and demand has gradually shifted from a supply shortage to insufficient demand, diminishing the effectiveness of growth driven merely by factor input expansion. Transitioning to innovative driven growth is crucial in fostering high-quality development—a development that embodies new ideological avenues while ensuring sustainability in China's long-term economic growth.

Nurturing new drive is fundamentally about vigorously developing strategic emerging industries and proactively planning future sectors that continuously create new growth opportunities. This involves investing in emerging industries and new business formats and infrastructure, thereby facilitating a clustered development of strategic emerging industries. China has embarked on several initiatives in recent years that advocate for the growth of strategic emerging sectors, yielding significant results. Policies like subsidizing up to 80% of premiums for significant technical equipment insurance have supported the market introduction of over 30,000 critical technical equipment sets. Furthermore, the implementation of competitive policies such as the National Strategic Emerging Industries Cluster Development Project has enabled a systematic advancement from isolated breakthroughs to boosting capabilities across entire sectors. Concurrently, there has been a particular focus on fostering new scenarios in fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, gradually enhancing international competitiveness in future industries.

On the other hand, upgrading old driving forces is pivotal in promoting the transformation of traditional industries. Traditional sectors, notably manufacturing, serve as significant channels for technological advancement, employment absorption, tax revenue creation, and international trade engagement, positioning them as crucial components of the national economy. Industries such as petrochemicals, metals, machinery, and textiles continue to comprise a major share of overall manufacturing value; however, they also face challenges of being 'big yet weak,' indicating an imbalance of low-end overcapacity alongside inadequate high-end supply. The innovative capacity and industry foundation within traditional sectors fall short, compounded by tightening resource constraints and rising factor costs. Hence, rather than merely phasing out traditional industries, the aim is to promote transformation and upgrade through modernizing equipment while providing robust technological support in critical areas. The steel industry exemplifies this shift; many companies are experiencing operational and environmental improvements through digital transformations, thus enhancing overall efficiency and sustainability.

Theoretically, transitioning from old to new driving forces can occur through various methodologies. One approach involves maintaining old forces while simultaneously expanding new ones; another is the complete replacement of old forces with new counterparts. A third, more harmonized approach encompasses nurturing new forces while renewing old ones concurrently. The latter proves more effective as it allows for an aligned evolution beneficial for both resource allocation efficiency and economic stability, minimizing potential risks like gaps in driving forces. The successful implementation of this approach relies on having a comprehensive industrial system characterized by diversity and structural richness. China's industry portfolio includes a spectrum of development types—be it follower, catch-up, parallel, or leapfrog—each necessitating different strategies for fostering and renewing their respective forces, thus ensuring economic advancement through balanced dual-driving mechanisms.

Identifying core tasks and focus areas is critical as the transition between new and old driving forces is an ongoing process. It necessitates an insightful identification of the main targets for nurturing new forces and updating older ones, ensuring that traditional industries remain rejuvenated while emerging and future industries continuously inject fresh vitality into economic development.

At the heart of it all lies the imperative of innovation. Be it nurturing new forces or revitalizing existing ones, innovation acts as a dual catalyst. With the ongoing waves of technological and industrial revolutions, a profound change in global technology innovation paradigms is unfolding, with artificial intelligence assuming a central role in spearheading innovations. It is essential to harness the potential that AI brings to technologically driven innovation across sectors, supporting both the nurturing of new forces and the revitalization of older ones. Investments in foundational scientific research must be prioritized, allowing technological advancements to propel industrial innovations. This endeavor should be complemented by optimizing national innovation centers and engineering research hubs to focus on key technological research and demonstration, thereby facilitating swift breakthroughs and real-time applications.

Additionally, perfecting market mechanisms for the transition of driving forces is crucial. Establishing a financial system that aligns with a high-level socialist market economy enables effective integration of government investments with societal investments. By steering financial institutions to enhance credit support for developing new forces and upgrading old ones, sufficient financial backing can be ensured for both avenues. Significant adjustments in the layout of state-owned enterprises are imperative, prioritizing the elimination of inefficiencies while paving pathways for the nurturing and renewal of driving forces. Adequate support for private enterprises is critical, ensuring their rights are protected and fostering their exploration into new domains and innovations.

Capitalizing on new types of productive elements is also essential in driving this transformation. By nurturing new workers and expanding new labor resources, traditional elements can be organically combined with emerging factors such as artificial intelligence and data. Facilitating a deep integration of technologies like big data and cloud computing across all facets of manufacturing will radically improve process efficiency and sustainability, cultivating new opportunities within traditional industries for innovation-led growth as well.

Lastly, developing new quality productivity requires a tailored approach that respects local conditions. This necessitates a careful evaluation of local capabilities and existing industrial foundations. Pathways to cultivate new forces and rejuvenate old ones must be context-specific and avoid a one-size-fits-all approach. Regions rich in technological resources can focus on fostering high-tech industries, while those with a stronghold on traditional sectors should prioritize leveraging technology to advance their existing industries. This strategic framework ensures robust economic growth while transitioning to a more sustainable and innovative future.

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